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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japan's territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.